Over good food and candid discussion in Rotterdam, four senior logistics experts recently joined Project Cargo Professionals to take stock of a turbulent 2025 – and what’s coming next.

Having earlier cooked their favourite festive dishes, Hendrik Alma, Aditya Menon, Peter Molloy (LLM, FICS) and John Yiannis Pittalis shared insights ranging from regulatory compliance battles to the deeply personal question of who belongs in this industry.

Our shipper guest, Henk from NEM Energy Group, opened the conversation by describing how Trump’s unpredictable tariff approach “kept me up at night” but said American uncertainty wasn’t the only challenge. He outlined how European demands for classification, traceability, and mill certificates forced mid-sized operators to add compliance resources.

“Customers have become more demanding. We have to provide information all the way, traceable right to mill certificates in very specific detail. That’s not easy when you fabricate all over the world.” Henk was critical of the EU’s initial carbon tracking scheme, which required detailed electricity usage data for steel production, before it was simplified to country-specific factors.

“The European Union created this monster where you had to fill in all kinds of details. They realised they were falling on their own knife. They’ve wasted time of a lot of people and a lot of companies, in my opinion.”

The spectre of container shipping lines targeting project cargo territory emerged as a recurring theme throughout the discussion, with shipping analyst Peter from Sea3R noting that 2026 presents “a lot of possible competition coming from the container sector”. The concern isn’t merely theoretical. With container lines facing overcapacity and project cargo markets showing relative strength, the competitive threat is both real and immediate.

“People start getting creative when the ships aren’t there or don’t exist,” Peter observed. “There’s always going to be that cooling factor, especially if there isn’t high utilization in the other possible sectors.” The implication was clear: unless container lines maintain high utilization on their traditional routes, they’ll increasingly look for alternative cargo to fill their vessels, putting additional pressure on specialist project cargo carriers.

Peter also noted that the industry hasn’t seen the levels of demolition many had expected. “People have been going around the Cape, there’s been higher utilization. We’ve seen some vessels that we thought would be starting to be phased out of life, especially on the general cargo side, but also on MPVs.” The extended life of older tonnage, combined with new container competition, creates a complex capacity picture for 2026.

From the forwarder’s perspective, Adi from Blue Bell Shipping voiced his frustration with a persistent squeeze on rates that has characterised recent years. “I’d like to see the back of squeezing, of the super low rates,” he said. “The cheapest quote becomes the most expensive quote at the end of the day. I want people to value brand and reliability a bit more if there’s a price difference.”

Henk addressed this point by emphasising that, for him at least, reliability matters more than cost alone. “I’m not necessarily most concerned about the cost, though it is obviously important,” he said. “I’m more concerned in risk. The risk of not having equipment available, the risk of being too late and LDs being pulled. That’s much more costly.”

The evening took an optimistic turn when discussing strategic fleet development. John explained AAL Shipping‘s thinking behind their Super B-Class vessels, emphasising how the new ships enable the carrier to handle cargoes previously beyond their capability. “They’re not cannibalising cargoes we’re already taking, they’re doing cargoes we would never have been able to take,” he said.

With six Super B-Class vessels already operational and two more arriving in 2026, John said AAL’s investment represents a calculated approach to sustainable fleet growth rather than speculative expansion. “The deck carrier idea has really worked for us. We are really pleased. Most trades have been performing really, really well.”

John drew a sharp distinction between current fleet investment strategies and the mistakes of 2008. “Back then you had speculators, third party investors with five-year horizons expecting their money back, but then the crash happened,” he recalled. Those investors, often following broker advice, built ships of all kinds, but without deep sector knowledge.

“These guys were suddenly panicking. There’s a lot of tonnage in the water, there’s a lot of investors looking to get their money back, and that pretty much collapsed the market for a long time. We lost a lot of great carriers.”

The current approach, John argued, focuses on measured fleet replenishment rather than market speculation. “After COVID things were moving but, cleverly, most carriers have only built what they need. If people keep their heads on their shoulders and don’t go mad building new ships all over the place, we’ll avoid the situation where you can get a better rate but can’t get the service because everyone is squeezed to the point that they’re not delivering what customers need.”

Looking ahead with cautious optimism, Henk expressed excitement about NEM’s order book for 2026. “We are going to be filled to the brim and for a longer period. It is going to be like the old days, all the dynamics, the craziness.”

Adi shared Blue Bell’s growth milestones, including the expansion of their Kazakhstan business with a seven-strong, all-woman team split across three cities and led by Natalie Andriyevskaya F.C.I.L.T, MBA. “I’m excited to see what they do. I really believe in them,” he said, adding that the company also opened its 18th office in Australia and recently moved into new headquarters in Dubai.

Peter’s wish for 2026 was a simple one. “I’d like Mr Trump to just make a decision and stick to it,” he said. “If you’re going to put in a tariff, put in a tariff, and let us all adjust to it. Stop this rolling back, seeing how far you get. I think his ‘Art of the Deal’ works, but the problem is he sold the book so everyone knows how it works! Just settle on what you’re going to do.”

One of the conversation’s most powerful moments came when Henk spoke of his experience in the sector as a gay man, and offered a message to the industry about talent, authenticity, and business necessity. “Nowadays within our industry, you can be the person you want to be,” he said. “If a company really wants to talk about inclusiveness, prove it. Youngsters don’t have to be afraid anymore to keep themselves in a closet. People need to be who they are and companies need to protect the next generation.”

As 2026 approaches, the project cargo sector faces some familiar pressures – regulatory complexity, geopolitical uncertainty, rate competition – alongside the challenges from container lines seeking alternative revenue streams.

Henk’s prescription for meeting those challenges, a focus on people, was refreshingly practical. “It doesn’t have to be done with rainbow flags and pink balloons and parades in the company canteen. Just open your mind and open your heart as a company, because you’ll need all the great assets you can find – and you can find them in this community.”

Project Cargo Professionals is supported by Blue Bell Shipping.